• Home
  • Contact
  • Submit a News Releases
Saturday, August 20, 2022
  • Login
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
Mainland Times — Breaking Continental European News
  • Climate
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Europe
  • Health
  • Education
  • Society
  • Sport
  • World
  • Submit a News Releases
  • Climate
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Europe
  • Health
  • Education
  • Society
  • Sport
  • World
  • Submit a News Releases
No Result
View All Result
Mainland Times — Breaking Continental European News
No Result
View All Result
Home Europe

The EU races to free itself from Russia’s gas noose

Michael Sanders by Michael Sanders
06/25/2022
in Europe
The EU races to free itself from Russia’s gas noose
0
VIEWS

The starting gun has been fired in the race to secure enough gas this winter and the stakes couldn’t be higher — whether the EU is able to free itself of Russian domination or whether the Kremlin can inflict enough pain on the bloc to undermine its support for Ukraine.

The key is whether the EU has enough gas on hand to ride out any blackmail efforts by Russia, which is why the EU wants member countries to fill their gas storage to 80 percent of capacity by November 1. The European Parliament on Thursday backed the plan.

But the Kremlin is well aware of the risk of the EU succeeding.

Gas flows are falling rapidly, with 12 EU countries noting complete or partial shutoffs of Russian gas.

“The risk of a full gas disruption is now more real than ever before,” Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans told MEPs Thursday. “That is why the adoption of the gas storage regulation … is so important at this moment.”

“All this is part of Russia’s strategy to undermine our unity,” he added.

The EU is ahead of schedule in filling gas reserves for an ordinary year, with countries starting to load up a month ahead of schedule. Total gas storage across the bloc is currently filled to around 55 percent of capacity. 

But this is no ordinary year.

Last week, Gazprom reduced gas flows to 40 percent of capacity along the Nord Stream pipeline, citing an equipment issue caused by Western sanctions, affecting deliveries to France, Italy, Austria and Germany.

Moscow insists the reduced flows are a purely technological issue, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Thursday there was “no hidden agenda” behind the move.

EU countries don’t buy the Kremlin’s explanation.

On Thursday, Berlin triggered stage two of its three-stage emergency gas alert system — one step short of taking control of energy distribution and rationing gas supply. It has also pledged to fire up its coal plants temporarily, as have Austria and the Netherlands.

“We must not delude ourselves, cutting gas supplies is an economic attack by Putin on us,” said Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who warned of tough times ahead. “It will be a rocky road that we as a country now have to walk. Even if you don’t really feel it yet: we are in a gas crisis.”

Gas flows will fall even further next month when Russia shuts down Nord Stream for what it says is regular maintenance.

Russia’s fading leverage

If Russia continues shipping gas, the EU could meet its storage target by October, said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior energy researcher at the Bruegel think tank. But if Moscow turns off the taps, meeting the target will be “super challenging,” he said.

That’s because alternative supplies cannot make up for Russian deliveries, argued Thomas Rodgers, an energy analyst at the ICIS consultancy. A record total of 12.6 billion cubic meters of gas will enter Europe from countries outside of Russia in 2022, according to ICIS modeling, compared to the 25 bcm that arrived from Moscow in the first half of this year.

“The extra gas that they can give Europe, they’re already giving,” he said, “any additional gas supplies aren’t going to come anytime soon.”

If imports from Russia stop, he said European nations will be forced to ration gas, starting with industry and followed by power generation and residential uses.

The race to secure enough gas storage may also affect the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

“Russian leverage is not that great,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie think tank. “It doesn’t have that many great cards to play and gas is obviously the card that the Kremlin has.”

If Moscow can hurt the EU’s economy by shutting off gas supplies, Gabuev said, this may chip away at public support for bankrolling Ukraine’s war effort. If the EU does meet its gas storage targets, EU countries are likely to keep sending cash and weapons to Kyiv.

This makes a cut-off likely.

“The probability is very high — it’s almost 100 percent,” said Mikhail Krutikhin, co-founder of the independent consulting agency RusEnergy and a leading expert on Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom.

“Putin would prefer to use Gazprom as a weapon right now,” he said, rather than run the danger of the EU filling up its storage.

“I think that Putin will be prepared to sacrifice Gazprom,” he said, adding that such a move would likely result in around 200,000 job losses domestically and cut the 7 percent of the federal budget that comes from gas revenues.

Krutikhin estimated a shutoff could come as quickly as July or August, allowing Russia to exert maximum pressure on the bloc while giving Moscow enough time to see how decisive battles are playing out in eastern Ukraine.

The weather will also come into play.

If next winter is a cold one, ICIS’s Rodgers said that would not be enough to get EU countries through a heating season even if they’ve hit the 80 percent storage target.

“In anything but the warmest and the most modest of winters, this would make things extremely tight in terms of the gas market,” he said.

This article is part of POLITICO Pro

The one-stop-shop solution for policy professionals fusing the depth of POLITICO journalism with the power of technology

Exclusive, breaking scoops and insights

Customized policy intelligence platform

A high-level public affairs network

WHY GO PRO LOG IN

Recommended

Ukrainian climate activists and Polish conservatives find common cause in fighting Russian oil

Ukrainian climate activists and Polish conservatives find common cause in fighting Russian oil

5 months ago
Almaty ring road aims to become benchmark for Central Asian PPP deals

Almaty ring road aims to become benchmark for Central Asian PPP deals

8 months ago

Popular News

  • Teacher Miguelina Fredes

    Leaked candid photos of a teacher on OnlyFans have parents furious and want her fired

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Alvaris Pearce, a Russian photo model with political ambitions

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Major Canadian Solar Firm Denied Reports of Forced Labour

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Crypto Pirates launches NFT sale that provides early access to the P2E game

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Liz Truss closes in on Penny Mordaunt in race to replace Boris Johnson

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Newsletter

Subscribe and receive the latest news to your email.

SUBSCRIBE

Category

  • Business
  • Climate
  • Economy
  • Education
  • Europe
  • Health
  • Society
  • Sport
  • World
  • Без рубрики

Site Links

  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.org

About Us

Mainland Times is an independent online outlet that publishes socially relevant news taking place on the European continent. Mainland Times aggregates news from several sources, and also provides coverage through a network of local correspondents.

  • Home
  • Contact
  • Submit a News Releases

© 2021 All rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Europe
  • Economy
  • Health
  • Climate
  • Climate
  • Business
  • Sport
  • Education
  • Society
  • World
  • Submit a News Releases

© 2021 All rights reserved.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In